Prediction Market

A few years ago, John Poindexter and DARPA got in hot water for sponsoring the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a prediction market for future events. The market was designed to help predict future events through wagering. The outcry against it was that it seemed the site was encouraging these acts by the wagering.

I thought it was an interesting idea. Controversial, yes. Anything that provides insight into potential terrorist activities should be worth some study, I say. I understand that it worked, too.

After checking out some unrelated links, I came across the Strategy Page’s Prediction Market. It seems to be a similar approach as the PAM. Its interesting to see the predictions and how they’ve fared. I may have to create a site of nothing but these types of predictions.

Ouch

We spent the day wandering around Durham’s excellent Museum of Life and Science, which we heard was awesome but have never seen in person. It lived up to its billing. I believe its one of the best science museums around. Kelly and I were bemoaning that this was how Exploris should have been, instead of the yawner it is.

I spent more time than usual looking at the NASA collection, as I’ve been reading about the moon missions lately. Hard to believe we had such high hopes for the moon, then suddenly turned away. It was Skylab, then MIR, then ISS, then Mars, all the while the moon is the most plum extraterrestrial destination. Guess we somehow forgot about the moon.

We met Hallie’s friend Natalie and her family there. The kids hit it off as they always do, charging around the museum grounds with Travis chasing after them. A good time was had by all.

A good time, that is, until we got home. The slight headache I had had all morning roared into a full-blown bonecrusher once I got back. I had to interrupt reading Hallie’s stories with an attempt to heave my guts (which no longer works thanks to my fundo surgery). My head pounded for a few more hours and my body fought even the smallest sips of water. Around 6 PM my storm seemed over. I ate a modest dinner and am feeling 90% now. Very unpleasant, but at least over now.

Wet Christmas

We’re enjoying a wet Christmas here in Raleigh. My nifty home weather station (a wonderful gift from a Christmas Past) showed 4 inches per hour of rain falling at one point. Usually its been a constant drizzle. Our bird feeder has been filled with soggy, hungry birds. I count no less than eight on the feeder right now, though the seed is down to the bottom feeders only. There’s no chance I’m going to refill it as long as its so wet outside.

Our Christmas was a fun one. The kids slept until we woke them at 8:30. The presents were a hit. My parents stopped by for the bulk of our present-opening. It was good to see them.

Among my gifts was a CD of train songs given to me by the Naylors. That, coupled with seeing movies of my Pa-Pa standing next to the Southern 630 steam excursion train in 1968 (now being lovingly restored by the Tennessee Valley Railroad Museum) had me thinking of him, and of my other grandparents and family members who are no longer with us. I think they take delight in watching the festivities from wherever they may be.

We spent last evening at my parents’ for Christmas Eve dinner. I felt quiet and a bit emotional at the start of the evening because I was already dreading that it eventually had to end. Even before it started! Life is so short, though, and if you don’t stop to enjoy it it will slip through your fingers.

I warmed up later, though, after a glass or two of good wine, a fine traditional Christmas dinner, and musical entertainment provided by my guitar-playing brothers and I with Kelly joining in on flute. It reminded me again of how Dan Zanes encourages other musically-inclined folks to just sit down and play, just for the fun of it.

I write now among a room full of happily-scattered toys. Happy kids are upstairs, napping and not napping. My beautiful wife is occasionally walking in from the office to share funny anecdotes with me. For a day at least, the world feels at peace.

I hope its the same for you today. Merry Christmas.

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I’m Dreaming Of A Whitewater Christmas

A flash flood watch for the Central North Carolina area was just announced by the National Weather Service. Keep an eye on those creeks, y’all.

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA…
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…ALAMANCE…ANSON…CHATHAM…
CUMBERLAND…DAVIDSON…DURHAM…FORSYTH…GUILFORD…
HARNETT…HOKE…LEE…MONTGOMERY…MOORE…ORANGE…
RANDOLPH…RICHMOND…SCOTLAND…STANLY AND WAKE.

* FROM 6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD RAIN…WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES…OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

RAIN WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA…WHICH INCLUDES WADESBORO…ROCKINGHAM…
LAURINBURG…RAEFORD AND FAYETTEVILLE. HEAVIEST RAIN IN THESE
AREAS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MID DAY. THE RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND REACH THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS BY AROUND 7
AM…WITH HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS. PEOPLE LIVING IN OR
TRAVELLING THROUGH THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS
THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

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Strange Triangluar Field Near Newark Airport

Can anyone tell me what this is? I pass by it every time I enter or leave Newark Airport since its near the airport train station. Its this triangluar field that’s completely fenced off from surrounding properties. There are concrete pathways about 3 feet tall that lead to the center. At the other end of each path are three large blocks, apparently made of granite, about the size of refrigerators laid on their sides.

I thought it was some sort of memorial park the first few times I passed it but once I noticed there’s no real access to it I became completely puzzled. Oh, and the fence perhaps 6 feet tall at the most and not topped with any barbed wire, so I don’t believe it to be any kind of airport-related radio station or anything (and no power lines running to it, either). Continue reading

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Nifong’s Rape Case Collapses

Troubled Durham district attorney Mike Nifong has dropped rape charges against the Duke Lacrosse suspects after the accuser, Crystal Gail Mangum, changed her story yet again. Mangum reportedly told Nifong that she “couldn’t be sure” she was raped.

Hmm. Maybe she also “couldn’t be sure” she was sexually assaulted and/or kidnapped, which are the remaining charges these accused Duke students face thanks to overzealous Durham prosecutors.

Drop it, Nifong. Drop it all right now. Then save what’s left of your dignity by apologizing to these young men and the citizens of Durham. Continue reading