Terrorism Futures: The Policy Analysis Market

A lot has been made recently about the Terrorism Futures Market that recently got cancelled. It was a DARPA experiment attempting to let economic forces predict upheavals in the Middle East.

The Policy Analysis Market, which was set to begin signing up “investors� on Friday, was designed to let Middle East experts place bets on political and economic events in the Middle East, according to Charles Polk, president of Net Exchange, a small San Diego, Calif. company hired by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, to set up the market.
[snip]

By placing thousands of individual bets, the thinking went, market participants would shape forecasts about future events. The value of the contracts would fluctuate based on market participants’ beliefs about the likelihood of specific events taking place — moving higher if they appeared likely and lower if unlikely. Contracts would expire quarterly and extend a year and a half into the future. Each contract would be fully valued at $1 — the payoff for an accurate prediction.

[snip]
“This isn’t really a terrorism market,� Polk said Monday. “What we’re trying to do is look forward a year into the future and try to glean some insight into political and economic and military currents in the Middle East.


Much of the criticism brands the scheme as “incentive to commit acts of terrorism” as Tom Dachale said. Horsepucky! This was a smart way to try unconventional methods against unconventional warfare: terrorism. The participants were Middle Eastern scholars, hardly the type to commit terrorism. Frankly, with their payoff being all of one dollar, I don’t think you have to worry about this program spawning new terrorists.

It’s a shame that smart, unconventional thinking like this gets distorted and blown totally out of proportion. I welcome new ways of predicting unrest. We cannot apply the old, rigid thinking that worked against our old enemies (the USSR, for instance) and expect it to work against the shadowy terrorists. Programs like PAM would likely glean intelligence that our current sources wouldn’t pick up.

Being typically skeptical of the government, I find myself defending it on this one. It’s a different world we live in now – one that plays by different rules. We must be flexible in our thinking if we are to survive in it.

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Goodbye bplog, hello Drupal!

I have ditched my patched-together weblog in favor of this nice, new package called Drupal. Drupal is very nice! It has trees, Ewoks, and barbecues, which is why I like Drupal more than America.

Err, where was I? Oh yes! Drupal is modularized, making it very configurable. You can even syndicate my website now! And expect to see some changes in the theme of the page: I haven’t yet had time to mess with all the settings.

For those of you looking for the old content, it will live for now at this link http://www.markturner.net/bplog, where you can find the old webpage.

Please feel free to leave comments letting me know what you think.

Ahem. I said “PLEASE FEEL FREE TO LEAVE COMMENTS!” 🙂

Blimps and other things bizarre

I don’t know why, but I’ve found myself daydreaming of building blimps. Call me strange (you certainly wouldn’t be the first), but for some reason this strikes me as a Good Thing To Do. I am interested in building hobby-size blimps, to do things like haul amateur radio antennas into the air, and maybe as an exercise in robotics – imagine having 3d cameras on a blimp and gliding it silently over the trees! I guess it also builds on my interest in sailing, too. Flying an airship is much like sailing the skies.

North Carolina has been home to an airship base for a number of years, Weeksville NAS in Elizabeth City. It is currently owned by a company called TCOM, which builds airships there. Now I read that a local company is set to build blimps in New Bern.

So there is a lot of blimp activity going on here in the state. With the centennial of the Wright Brothers first flight coming up in December, the time may be ripe to introduce a “new” means of air travel to the world.

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Action-packed weekend

We’re finishing up an action-packed weekend. Yesterday, we got an impromptu visit from Kelly’s parents, who drove 11 hours to spend 3 and a half hours with Hallie. Kelly and I are still shaking our heads over their whirlwind visit. I think they really love their granddaughter or something!

We’re off now to do a little Sunday driving. I hope to have some time to write later today since there is a lot I can blather on about.

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Action-packed weekend

We’re finishing up an action-packed weekend. Yesterday, we got an impromptu visit from Kelly’s parents, who drove 11 hours to spend 3 and a half hours with Hallie. Kelly and I are still shaking our heads over their whirlwind visit. I think they really love their granddaughter or something!

We’re off now to do a little Sunday driving. I hope to have some time to write later today since there is a lot I can blather on about.

Does Bellsouth.Net Filter Users Email?

A friend asked me to transfer an old interview of his grandfather from a reel-to-reel audiotape to CD. I finished this task last night, creating a wonderful-sounding MP3 to email to him while I got the CDs ready.

I discovered this morning that the note I sent him with the MP3 information got filtered somehow by his “ISP”, Bellsouth.Net. Most of the message’s content made it through fine, but the link I sent him to his MP3 was completely removed! After two messages sent to him, I determined that Bellsouth must be altering the content of messages to its users.

I find this disturbing at the least and downright scandalous at the worst. I’ve never had much faith in Bellsouth as an ISP, having dealt with them before at a client site. I’ll agree that Bellsouth the phone company knows what they’re doing in hooking up Internet connections, but their Internet group has always seemed absolutely clueless when it came to being an ISP.

I should be fair and say I don’t know whether Alan is using mail-filtering software on his own PC and whether that might explain the filtered link. My “evil detector” – the gut instinct with which I place a lot of trust – points the finger at Bellsouth.

I hope I’m wrong about this, because if I’m right, it serves as a chilling indication of what the Internet can become – a filtered, censored wasteland controlled at the whim of corporate interests.

Update 25 Jul 1 PM: A test email sent through a different mailserver seemed to work. I’m not sure if its a problem with my home mailserver or what. Guess I need more testing to be sure, but at any rate, it looks less like a Bellsouth issue at this point.

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Keys keys keys

I hate keys. However many keys I have on my keyring is too many. They weigh my pockets down, they wear down the fabric on my pants, they’re bulky and uncomfortable, and they are based on outdated technology thousands of years old.

Why hasn’t someone come out with commercial keyless products for things like residential door locks and car ignition systems? Fingerprints, retina scanning, electronic smart cards, whatever. There are so many new ways for identification its mind-boggling. I rushed out and signed up for Exxon’s Speedpass , thinking I could use it for purchases everywhere. Turns out there are few places I could use it.

I have seven keys on my keychain, not counting the key fob I have for my office door. This is actually the lightest load on my keychain in a long time. Two of them are big, bulky car keys that have no reason for being bulky other than to make them stand out. These I hate the most. 🙂

After looking my keychain over, I decided I can remove three keys; three keys that I use maybe twice a year but for some reason still carry around every day.

I’d love to dispense with the other four, too, but it’ll probably take another fifty years before manufacturers catch up with technology and finally make the metal key obsolete. Man, I can’t wait.

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Example of what’s wrong with Hollywood

A Turner Broadcasting Systems exec complained last year that using a PVR is the same as stealing. Hollywood has subsequently waged war on them, going so far as to convince federal judges to order ReplayTV founder SonicBlue to spy on ReplyTV users in an effort to determine if users were skipping commercials.

Now I read that the new owners of the ReplayTV are removing the features that separated it from the Tivo: the abilities to remove commercials and to share programming over the Internet. What you have now is a dumbed-down Tivo wannabe.

Hollywood must evolve or die. If its business model depends on advertising, and the market no longer responds to advertising, tough beans! Guess its time to get a new business model! Strong-arming the electronics industry (a much larger industry, dollar-wise but with not nearly the lobbying clout) is not the way to do it. Convincing the courts to block PVRs is not the way to do it. Accusing your customers – the viewing public – of being crooks is not the way to do it.

I am so tired of the media mafia in this country. If I had a million dollars, I’d launch some initiatives to forever keep Hollywood’s hands off the rights of citizens to decide what media they absorb. The lengths that Hollywood is going in order to maintain their control over viewers is truly frightening.

I support the efforts to build open-source, freely-available PVRs. Not every program is the product of Hollywood. I’d like to see people everywhere producing their own TV shows and sharing them through the Internet or satellite feeds. I’d love to see a new television network, born of PVRs, sprout up across the world, driving a stake into the heart of the idea of rigid, centralized control.

It can be done. The technology is there. And such an idea is guaranteed to produce content far more interesting than what comes out of the brain[dead]-trusts in Hollywood studio boardrooms.

Hollywood should fear the PVR. The PVR, along with the Internet, is destined to relegate Hollywood to the scrap heap of entertainment history.

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Be 0wn3d In a matter of seconds

Swiss students have perfected a way to crack Microsoft Windows passwords in a matter of seconds, taking advantage of a design flaw in the way Microsoft creates passwords. Since Microsoft doesn’t include any random data in the password hashes it creates, the same password on two separate machines will create the same hash.

The students created a large (well, somewhat large: 1.2 Gig) lookup table of all the possible hashes. The result is that 99.9% of Windows passwords can be cracked within five seconds!

Since Unix and Mac OS X adds random data to the hash, they are 4,096 times more secure. Attacks against these boxes would also require 4,096 times more memory.

The students have a webpage which allows you to submit your own Windows password hashes for cracking. Check out the paper here.

I am strongly considering disabling password logins on my home machines and changing them all to 1024-bit SSH keys instead. Typeable passwords are too easily sniffed, logged, or cracked!

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Irony

I was about to joke to someone for misspelling something on IRC today. The joke was nearly on me when I spelled “misspelled” with only one “s.”

I’m one of the few people who could manage to misspell “misspell.”

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