Sept. 9: Call It as You See It

The wizards at Five Thirty Eight give Obama an 80% chance of being reelected.

Personally, I predict Obama will be reelected but will lose North Carolina in a close race. I hope I’m wrong about him losing NC but that’s how I see things today. It’s still a long way until Election Day, however.

Nevertheless, the polling movement that we have seen over the past three days represents the most substantial shift that we’ve seen in the race all year, with the polls moving toward Mr. Obama since his convention.

How far will Mr. Obama’s numbers rise, and how long will his bounce last? We don’t know that, of course. But the range of possible outcomes reads pretty favorably for him.

via Sept. 9: Call It as You See It – NYTimes.com.

Facebook cracks down on fake Likes | Reuters


Reuters takes a good look at Facebook’s efforts to deal with the issue of fake “Likes.”

Facebook Inc is weeding out fake “Likes” on its social network that are being caused by spammers, malware and black marketeers as it strives to maintain credibility as an advertising platform.

Facebook said the number of Likes, or endorsements by users, on corporate pages is likely to drop by less than 1 percent, on average, after the crackdown.

“Newly improved automated efforts will remove those Likes gained by malware, compromised accounts, deceived users, or purchased bulk Likes,” Facebook said in a post on its official blog on Friday.

“While we have always had dedicated protections against each of these threats on Facebook, these improved systems have been specifically configured to identify and take action against suspicious Likes,” the post continued.

via Facebook cracks down on fake Likes | Reuters.

St. Louis columnist still mystified by Romney Facebook hack


I sent an email to St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Pat Gauen after his recent column detailing how his Facebook page was hacked by Mitt Romney. I told him that if his theory is true that simply hovering over Romney’s ad is all that’s needed to register a like, then it becomes quite difficult for Romney’s campaign to deny its involvement in these shenanigans.

Gauen responded:

Thanks for your note. While I have absolutely no doubt that it registered as I hovered, I could not make it happen again. I only presume that anyone savvy enough to program it to register “like” on a hover would be wily enough to shut out somebody who (as I did) realizes what happened and follows with an “unlike.” After a while, the ad just wasn’t there anymore.

Pat

Meanwhile, users continue to complain about this practice in the Facebook user forums.

What Bill Clinton Wrote vs. What Bill Clinton Said

I heard that Bill Clinton ad-libbed a lot of his speech last night. What I didn’t realize is just how much he ad-libbed.

The Atlantic Wire compares what he said with what he wrote. Check it out here.

If you were following any journalists on Twitter last night, one of the most remarked upon aspects of Bill Clinton’s nomination speech was how liberally he deviated from the prepared text. What was handed out to the media was four pages of single-spaced, small font text, but — as an exasperated TelePrompTer operator found out —that was really just a guideline to what Clinton actually wanted to say during his 49-minute address. We decided to compare the two versions to see how one of the great speechmakers of his era goes about his business.

via What Bill Clinton Wrote vs. What Bill Clinton Said – Politics – The Atlantic Wire.

Clinton’s DNC speech

Bill Clinton


Wow, did Bill Clinton give a good speech last night. Regardless of what you think of the man (he has his faults), he is a masterful communicator. There are few people who can connect with an audience the way Clinton can. He was thoroughly in control at that podium last night and it showed.

Obama can give a good speech, too, but while Obama is undeniably intelligent and generally chooses good policy he does tend to come across as too scripted. A bit on the wonkish side. I think the main reason voters have a tough time connecting with him because his fabled cool demeanor. A quote in The New Yorker from a source close to Obama says he “doesn’t really like very many people.” Contrast this with Clinton, who was legendary for chatting with nearly everyone he met to the point of always running late. Obama’s speeches often come across more as lectures, like he’s a high school principal or the law professor he once was. He needs to trade in that cold calculation for some unscripted passion every once in a while (though, uh, not to Howard Dean levels). It apparently doesn’t come naturally to him the way it does to Clinton.
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Statistical Probability That Mitt Romney’s New Twitter Followers Are Just Normal Users: 0% – Alexander Furnas and Devin Gaffney – The Atlantic

Last week Zach Green of 140Elect, noticed some strange goings-on with Mitt Romney’s Twitter account (@MittRomney). Romney’s account, which had been averaging around 2,000 to 5,000 new followers a day, gained 141,000 followers in two days.

This observation prompted speculation – from Green, Slate,The Huffington Post, CNN, and many others – that the Romney Campaign was buying robot followers, or perhaps (conspiratorially) someone else was buying them to make Romney look bad.

via Statistical Probability That Mitt Romney’s New Twitter Followers Are Just Normal Users: 0% – Alexander Furnas and Devin Gaffney – The Atlantic.

Republican paid voter registration operation linked to fraud « gregflynn

My friend Greg Flynn has unearthed some interesting links between a firm hired by the North Carolina Republican Party to register voters and other similar firms alleged to have destroyed and changed voter records. The firm apparently tried to cover its tracks but not before Greg found it.

Good sleuthing, Greg!

An effort by Republicans to register voters with paid workers is underway in North Carolina and across the nation. In the past month various ads have appeared on Craigslist, Facebook and other online job listings offering amounts from $11 to $13 per hour and in some cases internship credit to help Republicans and Mitt Romney win in North Carolina in November by identifying conservatives and registering them as voters. The operation is linked to an Arizona company with a history of fraud allegations including the destruction of Democratic registration cards.

via Republican paid voter registration operation linked to fraud « gregflynn.

St. Louis columnist gets hacked by Mitt Romney


Pat Gauen, a columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, became a victim of Mitt Romney’s Facebook profile slamming. He thinks it happened when he hovered his mouse over Mitt Romney’s Facebook ad.

If this is the case, it would be extremely hard to blame this trickery on anyone other than Mitt Romney’s campaign.

This is my first presidential election as a member of Facebook, which I joined for kinship with family and friends and now find overrun with moronic political rants. I never comment there on anything except for occasional innocuous messages to those I hold close.

So I was surprised last week to be informed that I had “Liked” Mitt Romney.

For the uninitiated, clicking “Like” on a Facebook message is a public show of support, shared with all your online “friends” and heaven knows who else. I “Like” cute pictures of my grandchildren but never candidates for office.

So I posted a disclaimer and found a way to “Unlike” Romney (which is not the same as “Dislike,” for which there is no option, nor would I want to say that anyway).

via Facebook 'Like' for Romney doesn't mean much : Stltoday.

More Romney hacking victims come forward


Having given up on Facebook’s less-than-ideal search box, I thought to use the Google to find more unwitting Mitt Romney fans. It turns out there are a lot of them. (Click here to see an earlier list of responses.)

An example:

A friend from High School let me know that on the side-ads bar, it said that I ‘like’ Mitt Romney! Imagine that?!?!? I DO NOT LIKE MITT ROMNEY AND I HATE THAT THE FB SOFTWARE HAS DONE THAT. I WILL SUE FOR DAMAGES IF I EVER SEE IT! I HAVE A TEAM OF LAWYERS AND THIS IS NOT OVER!

…and this

My page was somehow updated to show I liked Mitt Romney, which I certainly do not. There was no entry in my activity log. I had to go to his page to ‘unlike’ it. There is no indication that it was an account level hack.

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Wake schools bus driver: ‘This is the worst I’ve ever seen it’

Wait, isn’t General Tata supposed to be “Mr. Logistics?”

More than 900 Wake County school buses transport 75,000 to 80,000 students per day and make about 25,000 stops. Dozens of buses were taken out of service this year to cut costs, maintain efficiency and keep state funding, according to school officials.

But complaints about service began pouring in Monday, the first day of school for traditional-calendar students. Superintendent Tony Tata said Tuesday that the school system is doing everything it can to listen to parents, address the issues and smooth bus service problems.

via Wake schools bus driver: “This is the worst I’ve ever seen it” :: WRAL.com.