As I groggily woke up before dawn this morning I had some insight on North Korea pop into my head. North Korea has been broadcasting bellicose statements to the world, escalating international concern much higher than in decades. Curiously, these threats have come in the middle of the night, Korea-time. The North Korean populace seems completely unaware.
The insight is that, no matter how large the North Korean army is, Kim Jong Un can’t win. If he nukes someone, he definitely loses, but it wouldn’t take a nuke to destroy his society.
Let’s say he’s dumb enough to send troops to invade South Korea. This is an army, while formidable in numbers, doesn’t trust its soldiers at the DMZ to go sprinting across to the South. If they get to South Korea, what will keep them from not returning?
Let’s say the North Korean troops get extraordinarily lucky and capture South Korea – maybe Uncle Sam was caught napping or something – then what? Kim Jong Un used to have an entire nation under his thumb; now he has only half a nation (or less). Millions of South Koreans decidedly don’t worship Kim as a “god” and will feel free to tell him to take a hike. Good luck putting the genie of capitalism back in the bottle.
I was thinking earlier this month that we might not want to mess with North Korea but I’ve since changed my thinking. The North Korean army is large in numbers but really seems to me to be a paper tiger. It’s armament is antiquated and compares in my mind to the weaponry that once protected Saddam. Yes, they once fought fiercely but that was 60 years ago. My money would be on the South Koreans, hands down.
The best that Kim can hope for is the virtual war he’s apparently fighting (or not fighting). He can make blustery statements in the middle of the night to impress his generals but not engage his citizens. Who knows? Maybe the U.S. will cave and offer some sort of concessions, which Kim can then point to as proof that he’s a legitimate leader.
It seems to me that he must need something to back himself up because I can’t help but think the magic of his family dynasty must be wearing thin. I’m not convinced he’s got the respect of his military. If Kim gets tossed aside how will the military shift the focus of its cult-like populace away from the military’s sucking of resources from the impoverished country?
The best bet for Kim is to wage a fake war because he has no way to win a real one. He can’t do anything without the military and the military can’t do anything without him. While this month’s saber-rattling has gained some attention, I think the real signs of North Korea’s future will become apparent in the next six months or so.
My son, who pays way more attention to this stuf than I do, says South Korea would completely over run North Korea in a month. If something happens it’s probably safe to assume China will stay on the sidelines and we might get involved, which would bring the end of North Korea even sooner. China may like the NK buffer zone, but I don’t think they’ll put their ass on the line for it.