After volunteering to be bumped from a Southwest flight the other day it occured to me how rare it’s been that a Southwest flight was oversold. Out of many years flying Southwest I couldn’t recall ever being on an oversold flight. It used to be that there was plenty of room on a Southwest flights I’d take, frequently enough to stretch out in the row. With Southwest planes flying nearly full lately, that little perk is fast becoming history.
Then it occured to me (I think a lot in airports, you know) that Southwest’s success may kill it. I love LUV, but their reliance on only Boeing 737s is beginning to pinch them. When all 137 seats are full on a flight, that’s all the money they can make on that route. If you need a connection, you’d better hope that at least one of the next 137 seats is available. Seems like more and more lately it isn’t.
The venerable 737 has been Southwest’s secret weapon but it is also its Achilles heel. Without adding larger planes to its fleet, Southwest risks not being able to grow. Full planes raise passenger’s stress levels, too, so loyal customers may opt for another airline. I think Southwest may be at “peak passengers” right now with nowhere to go but down, and I say that as a long-time, happy Southwest customer. In my opinion, all they can do to grow is add more cities to their schedule. That of course will also add additional burden to its pseudo-hubs like Chicago and Baltimore.
Right now Southwest’s planes are overflowing. It will be interesting to see how they deal with this problem.
I’m not sure I agree. The dramatic increase in costs associated with servicing a 2nd type of plane would far more damaging to service. They’d have to have pilots, mechanics, etc just for those planes. It could affect which airports they can use as bigger planes may need longer runways than are available at a lot of the 2nd tier airports that they use. It would dramatically increase the complexity of an already very complex business.
Yes, I’ve thought of that too. But what else can they do? All the can do is add more departures to places, which require more crew. I think the added crew would be more expensive than the new equipment. Then again, I could be wrong (and frequently am).
I do think that eventually Southwest will have to abandon their one-airplane fleet strategy. Regardless of that, I don’t think what they’re doing now will work for much longer. Right now their planes are too full.
Generally speaking, the break even point for any flight is about 2/3 full. An airline flying with a lot of empty seats won’t be flying for long. And since SW has long been profitable, I suspect their load factor has been 75% or better anyway. Maybe you were lucky and flying less popular routes?
Maybe I was. Still I’ve missed flights before and not had trouble catching the next one. I think we won’t be so lucky today, though. Right now I’m planning on spending another night here in Seattle, unfortunately.
Hi –
If it’s looking certain that you all are here for a while longer, are you interested in some company and/or a break from the airport? I just left a message on Kelly’s phone – we’re around and available today if you’d like a diversion!