A few years ago, John Poindexter and DARPA got in hot water for sponsoring the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a prediction market for future events. The market was designed to help predict future events through wagering. The outcry against it was that it seemed the site was encouraging these acts by the wagering.
I thought it was an interesting idea. Controversial, yes. Anything that provides insight into potential terrorist activities should be worth some study, I say. I understand that it worked, too.
After checking out some unrelated links, I came across the Strategy Page’s Prediction Market. It seems to be a similar approach as the PAM. Its interesting to see the predictions and how they’ve fared. I may have to create a site of nothing but these types of predictions.