The wizards at Five Thirty Eight give Obama an 80% chance of being reelected.
Personally, I predict Obama will be reelected but will lose North Carolina in a close race. I hope I’m wrong about him losing NC but that’s how I see things today. It’s still a long way until Election Day, however.
Nevertheless, the polling movement that we have seen over the past three days represents the most substantial shift that we’ve seen in the race all year, with the polls moving toward Mr. Obama since his convention.
How far will Mr. Obama’s numbers rise, and how long will his bounce last? We don’t know that, of course. But the range of possible outcomes reads pretty favorably for him.